Analysts of the “Erste Bank” predict that hryvnia rate to U.S. dollar will remain near the current level (7.90) for several months. There can be slight decline in August, which is associated with the plans of the National Bank (NBU) to increase its monetary base, as well as seasonal increases in demand for the currency.
After difficulties in the beginning of the year, the shortage of foreign currency has decreased. NBU started to buy foreign currency (USD) on the open market, while continuing to sell a limited amount of currency to Naftogaz, in connection with which the balance of payments at the end of February remained negative. “We have positive expectations regarding the balance of payments. In 2010, the current account will not deviate significantly from zero” – predicts Marian Zablotskyj, an analyst at Erste Bank.
The “Erste Bank” considers that the Ukrainian financial sector companies should pay their foreign debts without much difficulty. And the government can successfully engage more money in foreign markets than it is obliged to pay. Banks should make substantial payments on their foreign loans, but the amount of payments will still be less than the $ 7.9 billion in 2009. Banks remain cautious in lending and have very limited possibilities for issuing foreign currency loans. Analysts of “Erste Bank” forecast increase in lending, including lending in foreign currency, subject to further stabilization the political situation in Ukraine.п»ї
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